Transcript

Elena: Hello and welcome to the Marketing Architects, a research-first podcast dedicated to answering your toughest marketing questions.

Elena: I'm Elena Jasper. I run the marketing team here at Marketing Architects, and I'm joined by my co-hosts, Rob DeMars, the Chief Product Architect of Misfits and Machines, and Angela Voss, the CEO of Marketing.

Rob: Hello!

Angela: Hey guys.

Elena: We're back with our thoughts on some recent marketing news. Always trying to root our opinions and data research and what drives business results. The Super Bowl is in just a few short days. And since we are a TV agency, we couldn't really resist producing some Super Bowl content. And one thing that's tough every year about covering this game is by the time you see the ads, review them and comment on them, it's kind of old news. So we thought we could get ahead of things this year by sharing what you should look for when you watch the ads this Sunday.

Elena: We'll start as we always do with some research. I chose a Work article from Mark Ritson because I wanted to have sort of a reality check before we start a very creative focused podcast. It's titled "Marketing doesn't start with creativity, but with diagnosis." And this is a summary of a talk that he gave at CAN last year. In that talk, he challenges the idea of creativity as the ultimate driver of marketing success. He says it's critical, but it comes at the very end of the process.

Elena: Marketing starts with diagnosis, understanding your customer, doing market research, and understanding what your brand means to people. From there, it's all about strategy, who you're selling to, how they perceive you, and what you want them to think about your brand. Creativity is really relevant after this groundwork is laid, and it contributes about 40 percent to ad effectiveness, but Ritson warns against over glorifying it. And I want to bring that up because this episode is focused on creative effectiveness, but it's really just one piece of the puzzle and everything these brands did leading up to their Super Bowl commercials is much more important. But let's have some fun with some data.

Elena: I have some specific stats that you can maybe bring to your Super Bowl watch party this weekend to impress and more likely annoy your friends and family. The cost of a 30-second Super Bowl spot started at just $37,500 in 1967. This year it is over 7 million. The Super Bowl is the most watched TV event, and 80 percent of its viewers typically report remembering the ads, but only 50 percent recall the brand that was advertised. Beer brands have historically dominated Super Bowl ads, with Anheuser Busch spending over 500 million dollars on ads since 2000. The longest Super Bowl ad was a 5 minute spot by Chrysler in 2011.

Elena: 80 percent of Super Bowl ads are teased or released online before the game to maximize impact. And finally, Rob, you'll like this one. Super Bowl Sunday is the second largest food consumption day in the U.S. after Thanksgiving, and we Americans consume 1.4 billion chicken wings during the game.

Rob: Yikes. Every day is the largest food consumption day in my world.

Angela: Lots to unpack there. I like what Mark says in terms of starting with strategy and understanding of where your brand's at, I think makes a lot of sense, especially for the Super Bowl with the audience just being notably larger and more diverse compared to regular NFL games.

Angela: I don't know that people realize how much larger the audience is and more diverse. We all, of course, show up to Super Bowl parties and such, but it's a 10X viewership event compared to a regular season game, and the demographics shift markedly. Obviously there's an increase in female viewership during the Super Bowl. In recent years, the most substantial growth has been among women aged 18 to 24. So that's happening. And so for brands, this isn't just about reaching more people. You have this unique opportunity, this unique event to engage with a more diverse audience. And so when you think about the strategy from a brand perspective, are we going to speak to the consumers that are maybe already purchasing our product or service? Or do we have an opportunity to really kind of broaden messaging and create appeal and relevance with a new group of individuals?

Rob: Yeah, it's definitely a signature event, but you just got to go 7 million, 7 million. And that's for a 30 second commercial. I was thinking about that when I heard 7 million, I'm like, oh, you know, I'm old. I started my career in the late nineties. And so I was thinking, gosh, you know, like how much has a gallon of milk increased in cost since 1999? It's 21%.

Rob: A postage stamp since 1999 has increased by 100%. That's a lot, right? A movie ticket has also increased 100 percent. Cars have increased 137 percent and a gallon of gas has increased by 175 percent since 1999. And back in 1999, I mean, I thought the price of a Super Bowl spot was already astronomical. So what percent increase do you guys think it is for a Super Bowl spot since 1999? So if gas was 175 percent higher since 1999, what do you think the increasing cost is?

Angela: Yeah, that's a good question. So '67, it was 37,500. I don't think this has been a linear increase.

Rob: No, I don't think so either. And all this math is from ChatGPT. So blame Sam Altman if I have it wrong.

Elena: It's probably wrong.

Angela: I mean, geez, back in '99, I was in high school. What was the cost of a Super Bowl spot? Two million? A million?

Rob: It was 1.7 million. So it's 337 percent higher. When you think about all these other relative costs, the Super Bowl just continues to demand higher prices. It's just relentless.

Elena: Well, I think every year we have less and less of those types of viewership events. So it probably has become more valuable.

Rob: A great point. I mean, what will it be 10 years from now? We'll be sitting here going, gosh, 30 seconds is $30 million. Like that's just, which means then if you run a 60, you're running $60 million for a spot. I mean, come on.

Elena: Yeah. Maybe 10 years from now, the advertising will look totally different. We'll all be sitting in the metaverse, seeing our own custom Super Bowl commercials.

Rob: Absolutely.

Elena: Which some could argue will be less effective, but part of the power of a Super Bowl ad is like, everybody saw it. We all saw the same ad and you can all talk about it.

Rob: It's a shared experience.

Elena: Right. Well, that's cool, Rob. That's some great data. We'll see if anybody fact checks you on that, but I'm going to assume that you're right.

Rob: Going to assume that Sam Altman had it right. Perfect.

Elena: Well, before we get into what you should be watching for with this year's commercials, I wanted to talk about just advertising in the Super Bowl in general and when it might make sense or not make sense, because it's not always worth that high cost that Rob was just talking about. There are a lot of stories of flops from the Super Bowl.

Elena: I'm sure that a lot of us have heard a few. One of the famous ones is Pets.com went bankrupt 9 months after spending millions on a Super Bowl ad in 2000. So Ange, when do you think it makes sense for a brand to invest in a move as big as the Super Bowl?

Angela: Yeah, I think with that Pets.com one as well, I feel like I remember that was one of the spots that really had struggle with brand recall. Not to say that that's the reason they went bankrupt but I don't think it's a uniform set of criteria that answers the question for a brand of whether or not a Super Bowl spot makes sense. I do think that it's hard for me to argue that it makes sense if that brand is not at least semi-consistently using television.

Angela: You're going to come to the big stage on the biggest stage with the highest cost. That doesn't make a ton of sense, but it can be an incredible opportunity to drive visibility, create buzz, cement your place in culture, depending on what your brand is. It doesn't make sense for everyone. It's a premium platform. And I think premium platforms require premium strategy, so when a brand has a clear goal and has the resources to follow through, are they trying to launch a new product? I think I had read Cheetos is doing that this year with a new flavor or bringing back an old flavor. Are they entering new markets?

Rob: Is it going to be cheese again? I mean...

Angela: I think it was maybe cheese pizza or something like that. You know, are they trying to sort of transcend their category, create a new category, is there a bold objective that really aligns with the scale of a Super Bowl event? But I think without those strong foundations and a clear understanding of existing audience versus potential audience, expansion strategies, we had talked earlier about Mark Ritson's comments.

Angela: So, if you're going to play on that stage, I think you need to be playing the long game. Your ad shouldn't just be memorable for that moment, but create lasting mental availability, have the resources to continue to push that message out into the market, make sure that it ties back to your brand, drives business outcomes beyond that final whistle of the Super Bowl game.

Rob: It is a bet. That's for sure.

Elena: It is.

Angela: It is. It's a big one.

Elena: Ange, I think it's great advice that if you're going to advertise in the Super Bowl, you should be a consistent TV advertiser to begin with because TV is a different sort of channel to get right and to have effective messaging. So if you're working with a team and a brand that's already figured out the messages that resonate, you've got some experience on TV, people are already a little bit familiar with your brand. It's probably going to set you up for success more than if your whole move for TV is just a Super Bowl. Seems riskier to me.

Elena: Well, let's talk about creative effectiveness principles, because I think it could be fun to review what should brands be using, what should we look out for to try to predict when you're watching this weekend, what are going to be the more effective advertisements that come out of the Super Bowl? I asked all of us to come prepared with some principles we believe are important to keep in mind. So, Rob, do you want to get us started?

Rob: Sure. I just learned a new trick that when you're going to debate something, argue both sides. I'm going to actually present two sides of what I believe makes an effective ad. So the first is if you're going to spend this kind of dough, you better show up. I mean, if you're already in for 7 million or 14 million, okay, you better show up. I still marvel when I'm watching the Super Bowl and I see a commercial I've already seen like a month ago. I'm like really? Like you didn't think about getting a new tuxedo when you went to the prom? Come on now, you wore that last year. Come on.

Rob: You can do better. I mean, this is the time to show up big, to bring in the celebrities, the crazy remarkable strategy, the great production value. I mean if there was one time to show off, it's here. All right, so that's one side of it. But I'm also going to argue the other side of the equation and go man, this is the one I actually get the most excited about - how do you just really blow people's minds?

Rob: With something that's completely unexpected, completely contrarian. And the example that comes to my mind, and I'm sure many people's minds is in 2022 when Coinbase launched their QR code spot. While everyone else was doubling down on celebrity and high production value, they have a spot with a QR code that broke the Internet and it cost them the amount of a Mountain Dew that they had to give some editor to make a bouncing QR code on a screen. I mean, that was brilliant. Now, granted, they baited people with, I think, like 15 bucks in Bitcoin. So maybe that's where they dumped all their money. But I guess the point being, you are on objectively the world's largest advertising stage, so you better show up.

Angela: Totally agree. I, too, had the if I've seen this spot before, and I show up and see it during the Super Bowl, it feels like a missed opportunity.

Rob: You actually get annoyed because you're like, I'm actually wanting to watch TV commercials right now. Like this is the time I actually could care less about the football game. I want to see something remarkable.

Angela: No, I don't think so. I think when that's happened, it's been national, but it's a good point. Your goal is to keep attention during this break. And that's a great way to not have that. If consumers have seen it, the other thing that I think is rooted in a great idea, but sometimes falls short is when you see brands that buy multiple spots, maybe they've got one leading into the Super Bowl and then they've got two spots, one during second quarter and one during fourth quarter. And there's a story that they're trying to thread throughout, sometimes those fall short, because if you didn't see the first one, you don't understand the second one.

Rob: Right.

Angela: You're left kind of going, I didn't get that one. And this is the time where you really want relevance and you want understanding of whatever that story is, which I think ties back again to a bit of a broken record. But this is where big creative ideas should really ladder into a larger strategy. So the goal is relevance with as many people as possible. Because there are a lot of people watching. And then just simple things like we've talked about recently, and we were talking about creative effectiveness of getting the full credit of your spot.

Angela: Some marketers, to your point, Rob, are doing 60 second spots. So presumably 10 to 15 million, and for the first 50 seconds of the spot, if we don't know who this ad is for, that is honestly an act of violence by the marketing team against the brand that they work for.

Rob: Oh my gosh. Yeah.

Angela: It's crazy. And it happens a lot.

Rob: I'll also throw out there, because I can, I've always been a proponent of, as you guys have, and we beat the drum on this a lot, how important audio is in a commercial. And I gave an example of a commercial that didn't actually have an audio track, but I do think in Coinbase's case, you don't have an eyeball problem with the Super Bowl. You know, it's like, you have a different level of focus.

Elena: I agree. Those are all good points. I had a couple of things that are similar. Like Rob mentioned, grabbing attention. Obviously, how do you do that right away? And I had written down consistency, make sure it looks like your brand. And if you have distinctive assets, show them. And don't share them - every year there are like multiple brands who use the same celebrity. And to me, that'd just be a non-starter. If I was working with a celebrity in the Super Bowl, you cannot work with anybody else. Only me. Like you are my distinctive asset for the Super Bowl.

Rob: Yeah. You start mixing brands.

Elena: And then yeah, simplicity and clarity. Please don't spend all this money and then I don't understand who you are or what you do. Something to look for immediately after the Super Bowl is just consistency of that same ad. Are they continuing to run it? Like, do you see integration across other channels? That's gonna improve effectiveness. Some type of emotion - you know, make me laugh, make me cry. Just don't make me indifferent. I think most Super Bowl ads try to take swings there.

Elena: This is something interesting. My team was reading some creative effectiveness research. I think it was from Work and they talked about how the most effective TV ads, they have a clear storyline teed up in the first 5 seconds. Just the first few seconds, there's some kind of setup. You kind of know where it's going. There's some tension. And then finally, and you mentioned this, just being culturally relevant. We're going to cover a study later this week about effective Super Bowl creative and I won't give it all away, but the best ads are relevant to like a current cultural moment or the game itself.

Angela: Those are great ones.

Rob: Those are really good.

Elena: All right. Well, I thought it might be fun to end this episode with some trivia. I haven't done a game like this for a while on the show, so I'm going to name this the Mental Availability Match. And I'm going to describe some well-known Super Bowl spots. And we'll see if either of you can guess what brand was behind the spot.

Rob: Let's do it. Okay.

Elena: All right. Do we understand? Does anyone understand the rules?

Angela: I think I do.

Rob: That question was to me.

Elena: Yeah.

Angela: No, I don't know. I think you might smoke me on this one.

Elena: Yeah. It's whoever can answer first. And I know that there's a delay sometimes, so we're not really gonna know who actually won the contest, but that's fine. Okay, first one. In this commercial, a young woman with a sledgehammer smashes a giant screen.

Rob: Apple 1984.

Angela: Okay. I had no chance on that one.

Elena: That's an easy one.

Rob: Apple 1984.

Elena: This ad featured a group of office workers throwing paper wads and yelling "What's up" on a conference call.

Angela: Budweiser... Bud Light.

Rob: But she said Budweiser.

Angela: I did say Budweiser.

Elena: I mean, technically my answer was Budweiser. Maybe it is technically Bud Light.

Angela: It is Bud Light. Yeah. Parent company versus the brand.

Elena: Okay. A baby speaking like an adult explains trading...

Rob: E*Trade.

Angela: A baby. Uh...

Elena: Okay, Rob's like crushing it. Okay. A horse kneels in tribute to the Statue of Liberty...

Rob: Busch.

Elena: Okay, Budweiser I think is technically correct.

Angela: Yeah.

Elena: This is for Angela. All right. A boy dressed as Darth Vader tries to use the force... Oh, and I thought you were going to get that one because you love that ad.

Angela: I didn't get that one.

Elena: This ad featured a simple, colorful, bouncing QR code that grabbed viewers' attention.

Rob: Coinbase.

Elena: Okay. I'll give that one to both of you, but Rob kind of walked away with that one. Fun. All right. Well, you got all of them though. Yeah, there wasn't a single one you missed. So, hey, that's the power of a well-done Super Bowl ad. Those are all a mix from different years.

Rob: Who directed the Apple spot?

Elena: I don't know. Who?

Rob: Ridley Scott.

Elena: Mm. Oh, wow. That is an iconic ad.

Rob: It is.

Elena: Also, I think the E*Trade babies are a slept-on distinctive asset. Those are fun.

Angela: Did they do that last year or two?

Elena: I remember them playing tennis. Didn't they have them in like a tennis match or something?

Angela: Yeah, it's a great campaign. You talk about Distinctive Assets, and it's like, holy smokes, that thing has had legs. I mean, they just keep playing. Who doesn't want to watch a baby talking like an adult? It's just...

Elena: It's always funny, no matter what.

Rob: Just like farting. It's always funny.

Elena: That was like in one of our spots, we put adult heads on babies. It's like, it's never not funny.

Rob: It's never not funny. And slightly creepy.

Angela: I mean, that's another principle that we didn't talk about is not just consistency after the Super Bowl for the next number of months or whatever, but you could just hear the arguments in the marketing department about whether or not the idea is old, you know, and should we do it again? But it works.

Rob: It works. Yeah. Bring the damn baby back.

Angela: Totally.

Rob: You'll be in the top 10, don't make it hard, you know, just have it talk about trading stocks. Everyone will laugh.

Elena: America's done with the baby. Just keep going.

Elena: Yeah. I wouldn't mind if Google did that every year. You know, they haven't really had an ad like Loretta. I wouldn't mind some heartfelt stuff. I mean, Google probably needs more of that with their brand. So maybe they should bring that back. The Clydesdales, I mean, favorite.

Angela: Totally. Not talking too much about the Clydesdales on this episode. Oh, I just love the Clydesdales, the one after 9/11. Just, oh, gosh, hit me.

Rob: Yeah. I'm not a Clydesdale person.

Angela: Rob, I don't know... I'm waiting for the Clydesdale to like fart or start talking.

Rob: I need something else to happen here, but I know it works. Hey, I'm an expert in my opinion. I prefer the farting horse.

Elena: Well, the next time you get to direct a Super Bowl ad, Rob, I'm sure they'll love to hear your ideas.